2026 AMA SX FINALE… THE MATH!

With a solitary point separating Australia’s Hunter Lawrence and Germany’s Ken Roczen heading into this weekend’s final round of the 2026 AMA Supercross Championship in Salt Lake City, the stage is set for a riveting conclusion to what’s been an enthralling, see-sawing 16-round battle so far in the premier 450SX class. No matter what happens, one of these two riders will be crowned a first-time 450SX champion, and one of them will become just the sixth foreign-born champion in the sport’s 53-year history – joining Netherlands’ Pierre Karsmakers (1974), Scotland’s Jeff Ward (1985 and 1987), France’s Michel Bayle (1991), and Australia’s Chad Reed (2004 and 2008) and Jett Lawrence (2024).

So, who’s your money on? The 26-year-old Aussie, or the 32-year-old German? To be honest, few would argue that both Hunter and Ken would be deserving winners – albeit for very different reasons – each having genuinely earned their season-finale shot at the coveted title and raced hard but fair all year with a real spirit of respect and sportsmanship.

But let’s look at the math of a couple of different scenarios that could play out in SLC on Saturday night…

• Obviously, if Hunter or Ken win the Main Event, then they win the title (as it earns them 3 points on second place).
• But who would win the title on a countback if Hunter and Kenny happen to end up tied on points (for example, some freaky shit goes down and they finish sixth and seventh, respectively, on the weekend)? As both have notched up five wins apiece, the tiebreaker would then be settled by the rider with more second-place finishes (and that would be Hunter, who betters Ken by five to three).

It’s also incredible to think that this year’s one-point differential going into the final round is only the third closest in 53 years. Can you recall the other two? Let us help you out…

• In 1985, Jeff Ward and Broc Glover were tied on points heading into the finale round (Ward finished fourth to Glover’s fifth to claim the title by two points).
• The 2006 final was a heavyweight showdown in Las Vegas as Chad Reed and Ricky Carmichael came into the decider tied, with James Stewart just five points adrift. Stewart won the race, but Carmichael’s second place secured the last of his five premier-class AMA SX title.

Interestingly, the 450SX-class Championship has never finished ties on points. But if it does this year, it’s kind of comforting for Aussie fans to know that the tiebreak will give the title to Hunter Lawrence – especially when you consider how agonizingly close he’s come to upstaging his younger bro, Jett, in both the 2024 and 2025 SMX World Championship (and the million-dollar payday that came with both!)

Settle in for an epic weekend’s racing, folks. May the best man win!