2015 AMA SX & MX: Musical Chairs – Part 2

As we are now full bore into the 2014 Lucas Oil AMA Pro Motocross Championship, the silly season is firming up more and more by the day. As the highest profile spots get filled, the urgency begins to rise for the remaining spots. When the music stops, no one wants to be left without a chair. It is a massive chess game between teams and riders that is often dependent on a third party to dictate who goes where. For instance, if Rider A and Rider B are both vying for one elite level spot, but the team wants Rider C for that  same spot, all of the teams down the pecking order will have to wait. Rider A and Rider B will both hold out on other offers until that team makes their final decision, even if they are not the first choice. It really can create a huge log jam and uncertainty for teams, riders and sponsors all the way down the line. No one will tie up any budget until the big fish are spoken for. It’s a complex game of cat and mouse and can be frustrating at times for those who just want to get their deal signed and move forward. Keeping that in mind, let’s take a look at where the 450 teams stand as of today.

Note: Some of these bits are based on speculation and my opinion, while some are much more confirmed… 

To check out Part 1 of our 2015 AMA SX & MX: Musical Chairs series, click here!

Team Honda Muscle Milk

Trey Canard and Cole Seely are signed, sealed and delivered to Big Red for 2015 and beyond. Canard is a Honda guy and they love having him around. Being able to win races is obviously a huge feather in his cap and hopefully he can reward them with just that. For Seely, he has stepped up for Honda when they needed him most and even delivered a podium in his first attempt this season. He has a squeaky clean image that Honda loves and, in my opinion, is a great fit here.

Monster Energy Kawasaki

Ryan Villopoto has a complex situation. Depending on who you listen to, either Kawasaki or Ryan has an option for 2015. Ryan seems to be debating racing at all next year and I don’t know if there will be a final answer for a couple more months. I am hearing more and more that he might just not come back for 2015, but that is still a 50/50 in my book. He would be leaving millions on the table and that has to be weighing on his mind, even if he has no interest in racing. The second spot will be filled by Davi Millsaps. Davi was lobbying hard for this spot and it was between him and Dean Wilson for that deal, until Dean signed elsewhere. Jake Weimer has had a rough go of it and although they love Jake over there, results trump all and he just hasn’t performed up to their expectations. I hope Jake lands somewhere with good equipment and for 2015, even if it means sacrificing his salary. Having a good bike is the key to reviving Jake’s value. Currently riding for the team is Australia’s Brett Metcalfe, aboard Villopoto’s KX450F. Word on the street is that Kawasaki promised they would wait and see how he performed this season, but it looks as though they broke that promise when they signed DM18.

Red Bull KTM

Ryan Dungey still has another year on the Austrian juggernaut, so count on him being there. The big change will be the departure of wunderkind, Ken Roczen. Roczen is a hero in Europe and him leaving KTM was a big shock to many across the pond. As Europe’s shining star, KTM must have had many, many long discussions about what to do about the Roczen conundrum. I heard rumours months ago of a falling out between Roczen’s father and KTM brass which led to the ultimate decision to part ways. Whether or not those rumours are true, the fact that one of the sport’s biggest global superstars is switching teams is big news. He will be replaced by Scottish/Canadian/American/Earthling, Dean Wilson. Dean was just injured at Glen Helen’s season opener, which certainly is a bummer, but he will be fine when it comes time to make the switch to DeCoster-Land. I look for big things from the #15 over the next few years, and obviously KTM agrees.

Yoshimura Suzuki

James Stewart re-signed with the team, so he will obviously be the leader here once again. James had somewhat of a renaissance year in 2014 and will surely be gunning for a third supercross title in 2015. There have been rumours floating around of his brother Mookie joining the yellow squad, but I haven’t heard anything confirmed yet. Malcolm has shown great promise on the bigger bike and if they can find the budget, this seems like a good move for all.

Toyota/JGR/Yamaha

The North Carolina guys pulled a coup when they lured away Honda’s Justin Barcia. He has long been a “Honda guy” and their ability to sign him up is more proof of not only the team’s improvement, but possibly also unhappiness with the current Honda model. The second spot on JGR is still up for grabs and after the horsepower display they put on at Glen Helen, I think that the pursuit may have gone up a bit. Rumoured possibilities are: Wil Hahn, Justin Brayton and although I haven’t heard much about it, I am going to throw Jake Weimer in here just because he has to be somewhere on their draft board. An outside shot could also be French superstar, Gautier Paulin, but this would be  a dark horse bet at best. I could also see Broc Tickle landing here if RCH doesn’t renew his contract for 2015.

BTO Sports KTM

Andrew Short renewed his deal to stay on my former team, and me thinks that is a good move for all involved. He is a class act and the team is behind him 1000%. The second spot is where it gets murky. Matt Goerke has had a tough year and while he is certainly in the running to stay, he really needs to turn some heads when he comes back. I think Forrest and his partners would love nothing more than to keep Matt around, but this is a cruel sport and sponsors demand results. It’s just that simple. If that situation doesn’t pan out, I could see a few different options here as they do have factory KTM bikes and that is a big draw for any available riders. Possibilities would be Justin Brayton, Jake Weimer, or Weston Peick.

Discount Tire Racing/TwoTwo Motorsports

Chad Reed is virtually a lock to stay at Two Two – I have this on good authority. All kidding aside, Chad has been looking very hard at adding a second rider. He was hot in pursuit of Ryan Villopoto in 2012 and Davi Millsaps last season. Both of those deals went awry as they stayed put, but once again he is in talks with a few riders for 2015. The smart money would be on Josh Grant, but Wil Hahn and Justin Brayton have to be mixed in there also. Jake Weimer could make sense here, also, but I haven’t heard his name mentioned – that’s purely just on a logical assumption.

GEICO Honda

Eli Tomac SHOULD end up here again next year. He has a contract signed and I fully expect him to honour that. He has been poking around with other teams if the opportunity arose, but it looks like that is not going to happen. Hopefully they can sort out any lingering bike issues and he can make a serious run at title contention. I also heard that they are abandoning the second 450 rider plan, which leaves Hahn searching for a deal. He has a few interested parties, namely JGR, so I think he will be ok.

RCH Suzuki

Ken Roczen is the big news here. Whether it was going back to his Suzuki roots, working with Ricky Carmichael or being serenaded by Pink, the end result is that Kenny decided to make the big move. Many scoffed at this rumour when it first circulated as it did seem improbable, but where there is smoke, there is typically fire and this was no different. RCH is doing away with their team gear deal which allows another revenue stream for Roczen as well as his personal Red Bull contract that he just renewed. There was a bit of a bidding war between Monster and Red Bull but his Red Bull ties run deep and the offer being substantially higher didn’t hurt matters. Keep in mind that RCH has big name sponsors in Dodge, Soaring Eagle Casino and Sycuan Casino and all three of those are in the seven-figure range, annually. They have the money and resources to hire virtually anyone in the paddock and Roczen is proof of this. As for his un-named teammate, there are a few options. Weston Peick is currently there, as is Broc Tickle. Both of these guys will be front-runners for that spot, and if Ivan Tedesco miraculously won a national or two, he could jump into that conversation as well. If I was a betting man (which I am), I would put this at even money for Tickle and Peick getting that spot. Tickle would have to take a pay cut, however, if he wants it. There’s been no word on whether Josh Hill (who rode SX for RCH this year) will return to the US next year (he’s currently in Canada riding a Leading Edge Monster Energy Kawasaki).

MotoConcepts

Mike Alessi will definitely be here as the team leader. As long as Mike Genova sticks around, Mike will be there. That’s just my prediction, but they are becoming more and more synonymous. They have really been the only legitimate program I have heard of associated with Jake Weimer. Genova and Weimer are both north west guys and although it would be weird to me for some reason, I think it might just happen. Unless Weimer can turn it around, I just don’t see a multitude of options. It’s a bummer, because Jake is a good guy.

Rockstar KTM (Husqvarna)

The Rockstar group just announced both the signing of Jason Anderson and also the switch to the Husqvarna brand. KTM is the owner of Husky, so in essence, this is a sideways move for the team and won’t change much as far as equipment, but it will certainly be a new look. They are going to be losing Davi Millsaps after a rough year of injuries. Whether he ever races a KTM or not is yet to be seen. I still have my doubts on that one. Either way, the future looks solid with Anderson on the new Husky/KTM factory machine.

—

So, that’s where we sit as of today in the 450 class. There are still a few shoes left to drop (I honestly have no idea what that saying means) and things will still change. The 250 class is a whole different animal so we will take a look at that next time!