2015 AMA Supercross: A1 Insights

With Anaheim 1; the beginning of what will surely be an epic SX season, fast approaching, it’s time to get revved up for the racing ahead. Transmoto will be running articles, presented by Fox Head Australia, discussing a range of topics, from contenders to pretenders to rookies. And we’re putting our money where our mouth is, with some predictions. 

The early-January Monster Energy AMA Supercross series is custom-made for bench racing. Fuelled by the boozy bingeing of the Christmas and New Year break, the world’s premier supercross series has the capacity to elicit the opinionated beast in the meekest of moto fiends, and to generate the most fantastic mash-up of rumour, speculation and blatant bullshit known to the dirt bike world.

Here are a bunch of topics that created the most animated, inebriated jibber-jabber in the Transmoto office (and its local watering holes) in the lead-up to the series’ January 3 season opener at Angel Stadium, Los Angeles … affectionately known as A1.

YELLOW ROC

Having schooled his much more fancied rivals en route to winning the premier-class Motocross Championship on debut in 2014, Germany’s Ken Roczen will undoubtedly be a key player in the 2015 AMA 450SX title chase. And we reckon his move back to Suzuki – the brand synonymous with his formative years, and where he won his first World MX Championship – will make K-Roc an even more dangerous proposition. Having Ricky Carmichael in his corner can’t hurt the kid, either. Then again, Kenny made a few choice parting comments about the KTM 450’s shortcomings that are sure to fire up former team manager, Roger De Coster, so expect to see a few orange skidmarks on Roczen’s yellow shrouds at the first few rounds. That’s if Dungey, Wilson, Short and Brayton can catch Kenny, who’s notorious for starting his race seasons with is eye in. Remember also the way that Roczen dispensed with James Stewart’s challenge at A1 last year, keeping his head and race rhythm to take the win, while Stewart binned it spectacularly in the whoops.

Also bear in mind these telling stats: the rider who won the season opener has gone onto become champion 17 times, and in 32 of the series’ 40 seasons, the eventual champion appeared on the podium at the season opener. In other words, a win or podium place at A1 is a damn good championship indicator, and in our mind, Ken Roczen is an odds-on favourite to stand on the A1 podium on the Saturday night of 2015.

THE SAPS’ REVENGE

Davi Millsaps may seem like he’s a veteran in the sport, but he’s still only 26 and the smart money suggests the best is yet to come from the big bloke. Having finished runner-up to Ryan Villopoto in the series in both 2012 and 2013 – when he upstaged everyone for the first half of the season on what was essentially a privateer bike, before succumbing to injury – Millsaps has earned his rightful place on the factory Kawasaki seat that was vacated by Villopoto. And Davi’s win at the 2014 Monster Energy Cup in October – after the best part of 18 months on the sidelines – confirms he’ll be in the mix from the get-go in season 2015. The laid-back Saps has a lot to prove this year, and season 2015 will be the first time in several years when he comes into the season fit, injury-free and aboard factory machinery. There’s every chance he picks up where he left off at A1 in 2013: with an emphatic win. Also, let’s hope that, unlike a year ago, the series’ promoters actually invite Millsaps to the A1 pre-season press conference this year!

THE VACANT THRONE

Ryan Villopoto clearly messed with everyone’s heads before the past few seasons had even got underway, and he went on to equal Jeremy McGrath’s record of four consecutive 450SX-class title wins. But now that Villopoto has set his sights on a Motocross World Championship in Europe, we’re assured of a new champ in 2015. Call it a power vacuum if you like, but RV’s departure will suddenly make the title chase a whole lot more open, and prompt more guys to think they can land themselves that coveted No.1 plate. But, as Villopoto points out in the Chad Reed profile that appears in the Jan-Feb issue Transmoto, “You can’t afford to race yourself into shape these days; you’re going to need to start to season healthy and ready if you want to be any chance of wining the title.”

HONDA’S DROUGHT

When you sign on with Honda – as a staffer or sponsored rider – you’re indoctrinated with the idea that Honda is the world’s leading motorcycle manufacturer whose very existence is inexorably rooted in racing success. As the brand’s founder Soichiro Honda says, “If Honda does not race, there is no Honda.” And there’s no doubt the Big H has won a race or three in its day. In fact, it holds the AMA SX series record with 15 premier-class title wins. But when the brand has failed to notch up a premier-class win the AMA Supercross series for more than a decade (yep, Ricky Carmichael’s 2003 title was Honda’s last), it tends to sit at odds with Honda HQ’s MO, and resources are mobilised to … set things straight. From what we hear, that’s very much the case for the factory-backed Honda team in America for season 2015. Rest assured that no stone will be left unturned in providing Trey Canard, Cole Seely and GEICO Honda’s Eli Tomac with the finest machinery and the best chance of putting Honda back on top of the 450SX box. Tomac and Canard’s second- and third-place finishes at the Monster Energy Cup back in October suggest they’re already on track for the sort of showing that Soichiro and co will expect from them when the main game kicks off at A1. 

STEWART SIDELINING

Don’t even start us about this one. You’ve probably had enough of the saga, too, and no doubt you will have read the barrage of opinion about James Stewart’s 16-month ban from racing (most of it against the decision, it has to be said). Suffice to say that the sport and the 2015 AMA SX series will be poorer for it. The only positive spin we can put on the fiasco is that Stewart’s sidelining gives Chad Reed the chance to claw back some race wins on his old foe and reclaim his third place on the sport’s all-time win-list.

THE SENTIMENTAL FAVOURITE

After going 3-9-1-3-1 at the opening five rounds of the 2014 season, Chad Reed was on a roll and just two points off Villopoto’s lead in the standings. But Reedy’s brutal last-lap crash at San Diego – a track that has previously been so good to him – spelled the end to a season that looked like it might bring Reed his third title. In spite of all the pre-season talk that Reed was past his prime, those early-season performances reinforced that you can never, ever rule Reed out.

For season 2015, Reedy says he’s way ahead of the curve – with bike set-up, fitness, his contentment levels and his team structure and funding – and a better chance than ever to be holding the No.1 plate aloft in Las Vegas, come early May. He’s not alone in this sort of thinking, either. Check out the Reedy profile in the Jan-Feb issue of Transmoto, in which both Jeremy McGrath and Ryan Villopoto go on the record in saying that Reed has a very real chance to take his third AMA 450SX title in 2015. According to RV, “Chad is the wildcard this season”, while McGrath points to the fact that Reedy is one of only two former premier-class champions in the field this year (including the super-consistent Ryan Dungey), and that that experience will hold him in good stead for what promises to be a super-competitive field of riders.

With Reed’s long-time Australian AMA racing compatriot, Michael Byrne, not competing in the AMA SX series again this year, Adam Monea and Matt Moss will join Reed to fly the Aussie flag. Matt’s brother, Jake, was supposed to race as well, but he broke his leg while training in the US just days ago. Adam and Matt are planning to race the opening six rounds of the series, so let’s hope the boys make a damn good fist of it.

450 DEBUTANTES

Can you recall another season where so many talented riders have been stepping up to the 450SX class for the first time? We can’t. Run your eye over these names: Blake Baggett, Cole Seely, Jason Anderson, Dean Wilson and Wil Hahn (okay, he raced the 450 in 2014, but not for long). All five of them have a 250SX-class supercross title to their name, so if Roczen can step up and take race wins and podiums in his debut year, then so can these characters. We’d be surprise if all five weren’t on the podium at some stage this year. At the very least, they’ll all be capable of running at the front of the 450SX field and, inadvertently or otherwise, play spoiler to the class’s main title contenders at some point during the season.

Speaking of spoilers, expect the likes of KTM teammates Justin Brayton and Andrew Short, TwoTwo Motorsports’ Josh Grant, Weston Peick, RCH Suzuki’s Broc Tickle and Mike Alessi (who’s back from racing in Canada, it appears) to all bang bars at the front of the field on occasion.

THE BARCIA FACTOR

Like most team Honda riders in recent years, Justin Barcia has struggled to get his CRF450R working exactly the way he’d like it to; the major reason cited for jumping ship to JGR/Toyota/Yamaha in 2015. So, will a fresh team environment help “Bam Bam” reclaim his race-wining form and fulfill the title-winning promise attached to his name for several years? Well, that was the thinking coming into October’s Monster Energy Cup, but Barcia wasn’t even in the picture in any of that event’s three motos. That said, the MEC has proved to be a poor form guide for the AMA SX series, so it’ll be interesting to see what Boy Wonder can do aboard the YZ450F. More importantly, it’ll be interesting to catch up on his hairstyle and the fancy cut of his hipster beard. In any case, it’s a bit of a make or break year for the former 250cc-class MX and SX title winner, and you can’t help get the feeling that if Barcia can’t win, he’ll be doing his best to punt those who can into the cheap seats.

THE 250 CLASS

With Adam Cianciarulo sidelined through injury, Justin Hill will win a title. Bold prediction, admittedly, in a field of wild-eyed, fiercely competitive young 250SX-class punks. But the way that Hill threw the 450cc Red Bull KTM around at the Monster Energy Cup impressed us like few riders ever have in the past. The kid has speed, style and racecraft, and with the maestro that is Roger De Coster in his corner, he’ll be hard to beat aboard the KTM 250. Okay, we’re going to give Cooper Webb a mention here as well, as that kid is a guaranteed future champ.

For the rest of the winners and podium place-getters in the 250SX classes – East Coast or West – place your bets. But, Hill and Webb aside, don’t expect short odds from us, because it’s anyone’s game! No doubt, the reappearance of Josh Hansen in the 250SX class will create some fireworks, too. At the very least, he’s got a whole lot more experience than the rest of the 250-class hopefuls, and won’t be fazed by their bar-banging tactics in the slightest.

For a little more ‘scientific’ analysis of the 250SX class in season 2015, check out the insights that Transmoto‘s Jackson Reardon recently offered up.